Sri Lanka vs England 3rd Match ODI Prediction: 22 October 2026

Match preview

Key Takeaways

• Sri Lanka and England meet in the third match of the Pakistan ODI Tri-Series 2026/27 at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium on Thursday, 22 October. The scheduled start is 1:00pm PKT / 8:00am GMT / 1:30pm IST.
• Pakistan have won both completed matches in Rawalpindi: Sri Lanka lost by 37 runs on 18 October and England lost by 87 runs on 20 October.
• England are the conditional pre-toss lean after winning the recent ODI series in England 2–1, but Sri Lanka’s 16-run win in that series and the current replacement of Pathum Nissanka mean this is not a one-sided call.
• The dated Rawalpindi forecast points to a hot, dry afternoon cooling into a clear evening, with no rain shown in the 21 October hourly update.

Match overview

Sri Lanka face England in the third match of the Pakistan, England and Sri Lanka Tri-nation ODI Series 2026/27 at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium, Rawalpindi, on Thursday, 22 October. PCB’s schedule lists it as the 3rd Match, while the PCB and ECB describe the seven-match competition as an ODI tri-series.

The official start is 1:00pm Pakistan time, or 8:00am GMT/UTC and 1:30pm IST. PCB says the toss for all matches is scheduled for 12:30pm PKT. This is a 50-over-per-side ODI subject to the playing conditions and any interruption. The cricket match prediction hub remains the best place to compare this dated preview with other current fixtures; the earlier Pakistan vs England 2nd ODI preview is a prior preview, not proof of this match’s outcome.

At the 21 October research cutoff, the fixture was verified and still upcoming. No official playing XIs or toss decision had been published.

Latest news and recent form

The immediate form line is shaped by the first two matches. Pakistan made 305 and beat Sri Lanka by 37 runs on 18 October. Salman Ali Agha’s 107 set the total, while Pavan Rathnayake’s 79 and Janith Liyanage’s 60 gave Sri Lanka a substantial partnership without completing the chase. Eshan Malinga took 4/46, but Pakistan’s pace attack closed the game.

Two days later, Pakistan beat England by 87 runs. Pakistan made 302/9, England were all out for 215 in 38.4 overs, and Arafat Minhas supplied the decisive all-round performance with 59 and 6/40. Tom Banton’s 57 and Ben Duckett’s 45 gave England a useful start, but the middle order could not absorb Minhas’ control and turn.

England’s broader ODI form remains the stronger of these two teams. ECB’s announced squad came after a 2–1 ODI series win over Sri Lanka in September, and England’s 16-player group includes the returning Adil Rashid and Sam Curran. Rashid had recovered from a hand injury, while Curran returned from a groin injury. Jofra Archer was rested and Jos Buttler missed the tri-series with a hamstring injury.

Sri Lanka’s main selection change is more significant. Pathum Nissanka was initially conditional on fitness but was ruled out with a left hamstring injury; Lahiru Udara replaced him and had not yet made his ODI debut. Sri Lanka therefore need Avishka Fernando, Kusal Mendis and their middle order to create the early momentum Nissanka would normally provide.

Readers following the wider Pakistan schedule can use the site’s Pakistan vs Sri Lanka 3rd T20I preview, but its format and dated prediction should not be confused with this ODI.

Series status and what the first two matches showed

Pakistan lead the tri-series table with two wins. Sri Lanka and England have no points from their opening matches, and neither side has yet played the other in this tournament. That makes this game important for both teams: the winner moves into the race for the final with a direct result over a rival rather than another match against Pakistan.

The Rawalpindi evidence has two layers. First, totals above 300 have been possible: Pakistan posted 305 and 302. Second, both matches still featured decisive bowling phases. Sri Lanka’s chase ended at 268, while England’s ended at 215. The lesson is not that 300 is automatically safe; it is that a team must preserve wickets and handle the middle overs after the powerplay.

England’s loss also exposed a specific risk. Minhas dismissed Harry Brook, Tom Banton, Jordan Cox, Will Jacks and Adil Rashid, and was involved in the final run-out. Sri Lanka have different bowling resources, but Maheesh Theekshana, Dunith Wellalage, Eshan Malinga and Asitha Fernando can still create a similar squeeze if England attack spin without a clear plan.

Sri Lanka’s best sign was the Rathnayake–Liyanage stand in the opener. Their problem was converting that platform into a chase. A calmer finish from the middle order, rather than only a faster powerplay, is the clearest route to a competitive total or pursuit.

Team analysis

Sri Lanka

Kusal Mendis is the announced captain and wicketkeeper, and his role is central because Sri Lanka have lost Nissanka from the group. Avishka Fernando supplies experience at the top, while Kamindu Mendis, Pavan Rathnayake, Janith Liyanage and Dasun Shanaka give the middle order several ways to rebuild or accelerate.

The bowling group has variety. The new-ball pair can be built around Asitha Fernando and Eshan Malinga, with Dilshan Madushanka or Dushmantha Chameera offering a left-arm or high-pace change. Theekshana and Wellalage can attack the middle overs, while Sahan Arachchige and Kamindu give Mendis additional control.

The concern is role certainty. Udara’s inclusion is understandable after his replacement call-up, but his ODI debut status means Sri Lanka may prefer a conservative opening plan. They also need their lower middle order to avoid the late-innings errors that turned a promising chase against Pakistan into a 37-run defeat.

England

England retain the stronger recent bilateral record and a settled core. Banton and Duckett can score quickly at the top; Brook and Root offer a blend of power, rotation and experience; Curran, Jacks and Cox provide flexibility; and Overton, Atkinson, Baker and Rashid cover the pace-and-spin balance.

The 20 October defeat should not erase England’s strengths. Banton scored 57, Duckett 45 and Root 33 before Minhas changed the game. England also have the advantage of a deep announced squad, with Mason Crane and Liam Dawson available if the surface encourages a second specialist spinner. The question is whether they select continuity after one loss or alter the combination for Sri Lanka’s left-hand and right-hand mix.

England’s main weakness in Rawalpindi was not simply scoring rate. It was the collapse from 120/2 to 215 all out. Brook, Curran and the lower order did not turn starts into a chase. A more patient middle phase is essential against Theekshana and Wellalage.

Announced squad snapshot and availability

England’s announced 16 are Harry Brook (captain), Gus Atkinson, Sonny Baker, Tom Banton, James Coles, Jordan Cox, Mason Crane, Henry Crocombe, Sam Curran, Liam Dawson, Ben Duckett, Will Jacks, Jamie Overton, Adil Rashid, Joe Root and Josh Tongue. Rashid and Curran are available after their respective injuries; Archer was rested and Buttler was left out with a hamstring injury.

Sri Lanka’s effective 16-player group is Kusal Mendis (captain), Sahan Arachchige, Dushmantha Chameera, Sachindu Colombage, Avishka Fernando, Asitha Fernando, Janith Liyanage, Dilshan Madushanka, Eshan Malinga, Kamindu Mendis, Kamil Mishara, Lahiru Udara, Pavan Rathnayake, Dasun Shanaka, Maheesh Theekshana and Dunith Wellalage. This reflects the later Nissanka-to-Udara change; SLC’s original announcement made Nissanka’s travel conditional on medical clearance.

Probable playing XIs

These are unconfirmed probable XIs, not official team sheets. The projection uses the announced squads, the 20 October England scorecard, the 18 October Sri Lanka scorecard and the Nissanka replacement report. Official XIs are expected at the toss.

Sri Lanka

1. Lahiru Udara — opener
2. Avishka Fernando — opener
3. Kusal Mendis — captain and wicketkeeper
4. Kamindu Mendis — batter and all-rounder
5. Pavan Rathnayake — middle-order batter
6. Janith Liyanage — batting all-rounder
7. Dasun Shanaka — all-rounder
8. Sahan Arachchige — spin-bowling all-rounder
9. Maheesh Theekshana — off-spinner
10. Asitha Fernando — fast bowler
11. Eshan Malinga — fast bowler

Dushmantha Chameera, Dilshan Madushanka, Dunith Wellalage and Sachindu Colombage are credible alternatives. This XI is not confirmed, and the balance may change if Sri Lanka want a second specialist left-arm seamer or more spin.

England

1. Tom Banton — opener and wicketkeeper
2. Ben Duckett — opener
3. Harry Brook — captain and top-order batter
4. Joe Root — batter and part-time off-spin option
5. Sam Curran — seam-bowling all-rounder
6. Will Jacks — batter and off-spinner
7. Jordan Cox — middle-order batter
8. Jamie Overton — fast-bowling all-rounder
9. Gus Atkinson — fast bowler
10. Adil Rashid — leg-spinner
11. Sonny Baker — fast bowler

This keeps the 20 October XI for continuity. Liam Dawson, Josh Tongue, Mason Crane, James Coles and Henry Crocombe remain squad options. Selection is unconfirmed until the toss.

Head-to-head

The most relevant recent ODI head-to-head is the three-match series in England in September 2026. England won the first match by 89 runs at Chester-le-Street, Sri Lanka won the second by 16 runs at Leeds, and England won the decider by 223 runs at The Oval.

That 2–1 series result gives England the pre-match edge, but it also provides a useful warning against over-reading the margin. Sri Lanka already showed they can beat this England group in a completed ODI, and the second game was a 16-run contest rather than a one-sided result.

There is no Sri Lanka–England result yet in this Pakistan tri-series. Pakistan’s wins over both sides are relevant recent conditions evidence, but they are not direct head-to-head results. This is why the current call rests on the recent bilateral series plus the two Rawalpindi scorecards, not an invented long-term aggregate.

Pitch report

Cricbuzz’s ODI venue table for Rawalpindi lists 33 matches, with 14 wins batting first and 18 wins bowling first. It records an average first-innings score of 246 and average second-innings score of 220, with 337/3 the highest listed total and 206/9 the lowest defended total.

The two current tri-series games are more useful than a broad average. Pakistan scored 305 and 302 at the ground, while Sri Lanka reached 268 and England 215 in reply. The surface has therefore allowed substantial totals, but the match has still turned on pace through the surface, hard lengths, spin in the middle overs and the ability to keep scoring after the first 20 overs.

A sensible pre-toss reading is a good ODI batting surface with enough assistance for disciplined bowling. The team batting first should value wickets as much as early boundary volume. The chasing side will want a clean powerplay and must avoid allowing the required rate to rise while spin controls the middle phase. No exact par score is published and none is claimed here.

For broader ground-reading context, the site’s cricket grounds directory is the relevant internal starting point; no separate Rawalpindi ground page is being invented for this preview.

Weather report

The dated forecast available on 21 October is favourable. Timeanddate’s Rawalpindi Cantonment hourly update for Thursday 22 October shows 1:00pm at 83°F (about 28.3°C), sunny, 7 mph wind, 29% humidity and 0% precipitation. It keeps the afternoon sunny, with 83°F at 2:00pm and 81°F at 4:00pm. By 6:00pm it shows 74°F and clear conditions, and by 8:00pm 68°F with a clear sky and 0% precipitation.

Those values describe a dated forecast, not a guaranteed match-hour observation. The practical implication is a hot first innings followed by a cooler, dry evening. There is no rain delay signal in that run, but dew quantity, outfield feel and any forecast revision remain unknown until match day.

The previous Rawalpindi scorecard lists a 13:00–16:30 first session, a 30-minute interval and a 17:00–20:30 second session. That schedule makes the late-innings conditions relevant to both captains, even though no precise dew measurement is available.

Toss prediction and expected time

PCB’s official release states that the toss for all tri-series matches is scheduled for 12:30pm PKT, 30 minutes before the 1:00pm start. There is no toss result at the research cutoff.

The conditional preference is to field first if the captain sees any early movement or feels the afternoon surface will become easier to read later. The first two matches show that a 300-plus total is possible, so choosing to chase would require confidence in the top order and a clear plan against the middle-overs spinners.

Batting first is also defensible if the surface looks dry and the captain trusts the team to reach the final 10 overs with wickets in hand. The forecast does not create a rain-based reason to change the decision. The toss should adjust the reading; it should not be presented as a result forecast.

Key battles

Kusal Mendis versus England’s new ball

Mendis must provide stability after Nissanka’s withdrawal. Atkinson, Baker and Curran can challenge him with pace and changes of angle before Root and Rashid enter the game. If Mendis survives the first spell, Sri Lanka can use their deeper middle order rather than asking Rathnayake and Liyanage to repair another early wobble.

Lahiru Udara and Avishka Fernando versus Banton and Duckett

This is both a batting and a role battle. Udara is the replacement opener and remains an ODI debutant; Avishka has to help him settle without surrendering the powerplay. England’s opening pair scored useful runs against Pakistan, but they also face a Sri Lankan attack that took early wickets in the opener.

Pavan Rathnayake versus Adil Rashid

Rathnayake’s 79 was Sri Lanka’s best score against Pakistan. Rashid returned from his hand injury in England’s second match and provides the leg-spin threat that can change a middle-overs partnership. Rathnayake’s ability to rotate against Rashid before choosing the straight boundary could decide whether Sri Lanka build a 280-plus platform.

Harry Brook and Joe Root versus Theekshana and Wellalage

Brook fell to Minhas in the second match, while Root made 33 before Naseem Shah removed him. Theekshana and, if selected, Wellalage will want to deny easy singles and make England hit against a protected boundary. England’s senior batters must avoid repeating the quiet middle phase that preceded the collapse to 215.

Eshan Malinga versus England’s finishers

Malinga took 4/46 in the opener and has the pace to attack the stumps late. England’s Curran, Overton and Jacks are capable of changing a total quickly, but they must keep enough wickets for the final overs. If Malinga wins the yorker contest, Sri Lanka can compensate for any early batting uncertainty.

Match winner prediction

England are the conditional pre-toss match-winner lean. The case is based on their 2–1 recent ODI series win over Sri Lanka, the experience of Brook, Root, Rashid and Curran, and a deeper set of established ODI roles. The edge is not a guarantee: Sri Lanka already beat England in the second ODI of that series, and the current Rawalpindi surface has rewarded disciplined pace and spin.

Sri Lanka’s route to an upset is clear. Udara or Avishka must give Mendis a stable start, Rathnayake and Liyanage need to convert another platform, and Theekshana–Wellalage must prevent England’s middle order from rotating freely. If the match becomes a controlled 50-over contest, England’s depth is the more reliable advantage; if Sri Lanka strike early and force England to rebuild, the gap narrows sharply.

Final verdict

England are the stronger pre-toss match-winner lean for Sri Lanka vs England in Rawalpindi. Their recent ODI series win, experienced top order and returning Rashid–Curran combination give them more ways to recover from a difficult phase. Sri Lanka’s best counter is not a single star performance: it is a stable opening partnership after Nissanka’s absence, another substantial Rathnayake or Liyanage contribution, and disciplined spin through England’s middle overs. The forecast looks dry and the fixture is verified, but the official XIs are not yet confirmed. Reassess the lean at the 12:30pm PKT toss rather than treating this dated preview as a guarantee.